Iran and Ukraine want to kill Trump, too? US political risk and global geopolitical risks are feeding off each other. I stay long Oct VIX

Strikes on Beirut, at East Coast ports, and by Hurricane Helene have raised uncertainty for markets. We stay in cash. Sell industrials.

Draghi: "fractured geopolitics" and "accelerating technological change" are reshaping global competition. Implications for macro investing?

The Fed might have to eat crow over its 50bp cut. Markets are waiting for the election to find out. We stay in cash, and short healthcare.

Powell says: (1) unemployment rate is the "single most important" labor data point and (2) illegals are driving it up. Market implications?

The Fed will cut 25bps this week. The market won't like it so we cut our position and move to cash. Buy financials, sell healthcare.

China's new market interventionism is not at odds with Beijing's policy inertia. Commodity sell-off not over. China's woes supporting USD

Ranges should hold as markets await the election. We stay in ACWI until volatility falls. Gold miners are cheap, real estate is rich.

What is behind the surprising acceleration of US labor productivity growth over the past year? What does it mean for the Fed and R-star?

There are signs that the AI trade is not dead yet. Still, with a crucial jobs report set to dictate the path of markets, we move into ACWI.

Powell gave the market a clear signal on rate cuts. NVDA didn't drive the rally to a new high, so shouldn't reverse it. We stay long.

What do Zelensky and Sinwar have in common? Their only chance at avoiding total defeat is dragging their sponsors into the war. Bullish oil

Stocks rallied on stimuli of lower rates and consumption. Summer spending may fade, but expectations of Fed cuts will persist. We go long.

A new poll shows that men in a pivotal state are flocking to Kamala but women are moving to Trump. What does this say about Trump's chances?

Markets have given no clear signal of a bottom. A big data week means big volatility. We stay in ACWI. Sell staples for weak retail sales.

Gen AI has prolonged the US economic expansion. But the AI bubble has burst. Where the Magnificent 7 go, the USD and rates will follow...

June turned to July, and government hiring paused. Did firing the top guy set the tone? We move to ACWI amid volatility. Sell financials.

A couple of false alarms about a regional war in the Mid-East have made the market complacent. Why this time the risk of war is real ...

Magnificent 7 stocks have bad news in the price. This dip will trigger buybacks after earnings. We go long. Sell utilities against energy.

China is constrained by its weak fiscal position to stimulate its economy. The US may soon find itself in the same situation. Bullish gold